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1. 重庆医科大学附属第一医院教务处
2. 重庆医科大学附属第一医院神经外科
3. 重庆医科大学附属第一医院护理部
4. 重庆医科大学附属第一医院血管外科
5. 重庆医科大学附属第一医院院长办公室
纸质出版日期:2017,
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李娟, 胡丽, 赵庆华, 等. 应用ROC曲线评价汉化版Morse跌倒评估量表的高危临界值[J]. 重庆医科大学学报, 2017,42(5):591-595.
Li Juan, Hu Li, Zhao Qinghua, et al. Application ROC curve analysis to explore high risk cut-off point of Morse fall scale[J]. Journal of Chongqing Medical University, 2017,42(5):591-595.
李娟, 胡丽, 赵庆华, 等. 应用ROC曲线评价汉化版Morse跌倒评估量表的高危临界值[J]. 重庆医科大学学报, 2017,42(5):591-595. DOI: 10.13406/j.cnki.cyxb.001293.
Li Juan, Hu Li, Zhao Qinghua, et al. Application ROC curve analysis to explore high risk cut-off point of Morse fall scale[J]. Journal of Chongqing Medical University, 2017,42(5):591-595. DOI: 10.13406/j.cnki.cyxb.001293.
目的:探讨汉化版Morse跌倒评估量表在临床应用中高危跌倒风险的最佳临界值。方法:采用回顾性调查研究的方法
回顾2016年1月至2016年12月重庆市某三甲医院护理不良事件上报系统中发生跌倒的患者169例。按照1∶2配对病例对照研究方法选取对照组338例
对照者为同时期住院患者中未发生跌倒者。运用受试者工作特性(receiver operating characteristic curve
ROC)曲线分析汉化版Morse跌倒评估量表的准确度及高危跌倒风险最佳临界值。结果:得到ROC曲线下面积为0.835
95%置信区间为0.794
0
.876
当临界值为50分时
Youden’s index最大
为0.630;敏感度为75.74%
特异度为87.28%;阳性预测值为74.85%
阴性预测值为87.80%
准确度为83.43%
阳性似然比为5.95。结论:汉化版Morse跌倒评估量表在高危跌倒风险人群测评中的最佳临界值为50分
是进行跌倒风险评估的有效工具。
Objective:To discuss the high risk cut-off point of Chinese version of the Morse Fall Scale. Methods:A retrospective study was conducted based on the data of falls in the Nursing Adverse Events Report System from January 2016 to December 2016.A population based 1∶2 matched case-control study was conducted;338 control subjects were those who hospitalized for the same period without falls. ROC curve was used to analyze the accuracy and best high risk cut-off point of the Chinese version of the Morse Fall Scale.Results:The area under ROC curve was 0.835 and 95% confidence intervals were 0.794-0.876. With the Morse Fall Scale score and the best cut-off point of 50
Youden’s index was the largest
at 0.630. The validity indicators were 75.74% for sensitivity
87.28% for specificity
74.85% for positive predictive value(PPV)
87.80% for negative predictive value(NPV)
83.43% for accuracy
5.95 for positive likelihood ratio. Conclusion:The study results show 50 point can be used as the best cut-off value of screening high-risk groups.
跌倒评估受试者工作特性曲线最佳临界值
fall evaluationROC curvebest cut-off point
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