Objective:To discuss the application of residual Grey Model(1

1) in the time series data to set up the prediction model for Tuberculosis prevalence.Methods:Grey Model(1

1)was set up by using the material on Tuberculosis prevalence collected by Tuberculosis Prevention and Treatment Institute of Chongqing city from 1993 to 2003

and then used to predict the Tuberculosis prevalence of 2004.Results:The residual Grey Model(1

1)is ■(1)(k+1)=89.5776e0.0392k-85.0913+δ(k-1)1.6435e-0.3068k

the relative error values of predictive value for 1993 to 2003 were all less than 0.05

and the degree of grey incidence was bigger than 0.6

and the little error probability was bigger than 0.8;The predictive prevalence value in 2004 was 5.2942 per 100 thousands

the relative error was 0.0461 and the modified one was 0.0121.Conclusion:The residual grey model(1

1) had a good fitness and can be used to predict tuberculosis prevalence with high prediction precision in short-term time series.