Zhou Liang, Chen Hongru, Li Gaoming, et al. Cluster analysis of epidemic characteristics of hand-foot-and-mouth disease based on temporal characteristics[J]. Journal of Chongqing Medical University, 2018,43(1):147.
Zhou Liang, Chen Hongru, Li Gaoming, et al. Cluster analysis of epidemic characteristics of hand-foot-and-mouth disease based on temporal characteristics[J]. Journal of Chongqing Medical University, 2018,43(1):147.DOI:
Objective:to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of the hand-foot-and-mouth disease(HFMD) by di-viding different epidemic models according to the time series characteristics in 31 regions from 2010 to 2015. Methods:Time sequence features of HFMD incidence in different regions was extracted,including seasonal fluctuations,trends,autocorrelation and chaos,etc. Different time series epidemic patterns were divided by hierarchical clustering analysis. Results:Cluster analysis produced three types of epidemic patterns,namely,non-seasonal mode,single-season and multi-season seasonal pattern. Conclusion:For non-seasonal patterns,disease surveillance should be strengthened at any time to further analyzing the relevant factors. In the single-season and multi-season model,the appropriate preventive measures should be taken only in the high incidence period to reduce the possibility of a large area of epidemic disease.
关键词
手足口病时间序列时序特征聚类分析疫情模式
Keywords
hand-foot-and-mouth diseasetime seriestiming characteristicscluster analysisepidemic model