Objective To describe the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in Luzhou

Sichuan Prov⁃ince

China from 2009 to 2019; to investigate its epidemic pattern and distribution characteristics; to predict the trend of hepatitis B in Luzhou

and to provide references for hepatitis B prevention and control. Methods The three distribution characteristics of hepatitis B in Luzhou were described

and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) prediction model for the incidence of hepatitis B was established. Results From 2009 to 2019

the overall incidence of hepatitis B showed a slow downward trend

with a male-to-female ratio of 1.88:1. The farmers (62.5%) were the main affected population. The top three areas in terms of incidence rate were Jiangyang District

Luxian County

and Longmatan District

with mean incidence rates in these 11 years of 87.29/100 000

76.43/100 000 and 70.17/100 000

respectively. A time series was established based on the monthly incidence rates from 2009 to 2019

and the seasonal product model ARIMA(1

1

1)(1

1

2)12 was finally determined as an ideal model for short-term pre⁃diction of hepatitis B in Luzhou. Conclusion The incidence of hepatitis B in Luzhou has declined slowly over the past ten years

and there is no obvious seasonal peak. There are regional differences in incidence. ARIMA(1

1

1)(1

1

2)12 model is the optimal model for short-term prediction of hepatitis B in Luzhou.