Model for end-stage liver disease can predicte short-term prognosis of patients with sub-acute severe hepatitis

CHEN Nan-hui; et al

doi:10.13406/j.cnki.cyxb.2010.07.012

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Model for end-stage liver disease can predicte short-term prognosis of patients with sub-acute severe hepatitis

更新时间：2024-01-17

- Model for end-stage liver disease can predicte short-term prognosis of patients with sub-acute severe hepatitis
- Journal of Chongqing Medical University Vol. 35, Issue 7, Pages: 1096-1098(2010)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 贵州省人民医院感染科
  2. 贵州省人民医院病案统计科
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13406/j.cnki.cyxb.2010.07.012
  CLC： R512.6
- Published：2010，
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[1]陈南晖,沈权平.终末期肝病模型评分预测亚急性重型肝炎近期预后的价值[J].重庆医科大学学报,2010,35(07):1096-1098.

CHEN Nan-hui, et al. Model for end-stage liver disease can predicte short-term prognosis of patients with sub-acute severe hepatitis. [J]. Journal of Chongqing Medical University 35(7):1096-1098(2010)
[1]陈南晖,沈权平.终末期肝病模型评分预测亚急性重型肝炎近期预后的价值[J].重庆医科大学学报,2010,35(07):1096-1098. DOI： 10.13406/j.cnki.cyxb.2010.07.012.

CHEN Nan-hui, et al. Model for end-stage liver disease can predicte short-term prognosis of patients with sub-acute severe hepatitis. [J]. Journal of Chongqing Medical University 35(7):1096-1098(2010) DOI： 10.13406/j.cnki.cyxb.2010.07.012.

摘要

目的:评价终末期肝病模型（Model for end-stage liver disease

MELD）评分对亚急性重症肝炎近期预后的预测价值。方法:收集73例亚急性重症肝炎入院当天的资料

计算MELD评分

并以ROC曲线和曲线下面积评价其对3个月内近期预后的价值。结果:3个月内73例患者共死亡32例（43.8%）

死亡组患者入院时的MELE评分高于生存组患者（t=3.125

P=0.002）。MELD评分对亚急性重症肝炎近期预后预测的ROC曲线下面积0.756（P=0.0001）

95%CI[0.646～0.866]。当截断值为26时

预测灵敏度为0.906

特异度为0.854

准确性为0.877。结论:终末期肝病模型评分对亚急性重症肝炎近期预后有较好的预测价值。

Abstract

Objective:To evaluate the value ofmodel for end-stage liver disease(MELD)score for predictivingthe short-term prognosis of the sub-acute severe hepatitis.Methods:A total of 73 patients with sub-acute severe hepatitis were enrolled in this study.The information of first day admitted to the hospital was used to calculate MELD score.We used ROC curves and area under the curve to evaluate its prognostic value.Results:A total of 32 patients died(43.8%)in 3 months

which have higher MELE score than the survival of patients(t=3.125

P=0.002).The area under the curve for predicting prognosis was 0.756(P=0.000 1)

95%CI[0.646～0.866]. When the cutoff value was 26

the predicted sensitivity was 0.906

the specificity was 0.854

and the accuracy was 0.877.Conclusion: Model for end-stage liver disease has a good predicting value of short-term prognosis for patients with sub-acute severe viral hepatitis.

关键词

终末期肝病模型亚急性重症肝炎预后

Keywords

model for end-stage liver diseaseSub-acute severe hepatitisprognosis

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