Risk factors associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 and establishment of risk-prediction model in Chongqing
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Risk factors associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 and establishment of risk-prediction model in Chongqing
Journal of Chongqing Medical UniversityVol. 45, Issue 7, Pages: 853(2020)
作者机构:
1. 重庆医科大学附属第二医院呼吸与危重症医学科,重庆,400010
2. 重庆市公共卫生医疗救治中心重症医学科,重庆,400036
3. 重庆大学附属三峡医院重症医学科,重庆,404199
4. 重庆医科大学附属永川医院感染科,重庆,402160
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基金信息:
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Published:2020,
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Peng Junnan, Qi Di, Song Yuyan, et al. Risk factors associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 and establishment of risk-prediction model in Chongqing. [J]. Journal of Chongqing Medical University 45(7):853(2020)
DOI:
Peng Junnan, Qi Di, Song Yuyan, et al. Risk factors associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 and establishment of risk-prediction model in Chongqing. [J]. Journal of Chongqing Medical University 45(7):853(2020)DOI:
Risk factors associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 and establishment of risk-prediction model in Chongqing
Objective:To explore the risk factors of acute respiratory distress syndrome(ARDS) occurrence in patients with coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in Chongqing,and establish a risk-prediction model for the early diagnosis of ARDS. Methods:Clinical data of 225 laboratory-confirmed cases with COVID-19 admitted to 4 designated hospitals in Chongqing from January 16 to March 30,2020 were analyzed retrospectively. According to the Berlin definition,the patients were divided into ARDS group and non-ARDS group. The differences of initial baseline features,clinical manifestations,laboratory findings,imaging features and prognosis between the two groups were compared. The values were assigned accord-ing to the odds ratios(OR) of each factor to establish the risk-prediction model. The receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve was used to evaluate the predictive effect of the model. Results:Among 225 patients,there were 141 males and 84 fe-males,and the median age was 56 years old. ARDS occurred in 62 cases(27.6%). In the logistic analysis,4 variables(age≥60 years old,lymphocyte≤1.0×109/L,D-Dimer≥0.5 mg/L,com-plicated with diabetes) were determined as independent risk factors associated with ARDS in COVID-19 patients,and the odds ratios were 5.849(95%CI=2.716-12.593,P=0.000),4.318(95%CI=2.001-9.316,P=0.000),3.049(95%CI=1.300-7.152,P=0.010) and 2.491(95%CI=1.102-5.632,P=0.028) respectively. The area under the ROC curve of the risk-prediction model was 0.848(95%CI=0.794-0.892,P=0.000). Conclusion:Age≥60 years old,D-dimer≥0.5 mg/L,lymphocyte≤1.0×109/L and complicated with diabetes are independent risk factors to predict ARDS in COVID-19 patients. The risk-prediction model based on the identified inde-pendent risk factors may have a good early warning value for COVID-19 patients complicated with ARDS.
关键词
新型冠状病毒肺炎急性呼吸窘迫综合征危险因素风险预测模型
Keywords
coronavirus disease 2019acute respiratory distress syndromerisk factorsrisk-prediction model