COVID-19疫情前后28个国家生育率变化及影响因素研究：线性模型和中断时间序列分析

陈益; 陈卿; 刘涵; 王大朋; 曹佳

doi:10.16016/j.2097-0927.202401065

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COVID-19疫情前后28个国家生育率变化及影响因素研究：线性模型和中断时间序列分析

公共卫生与预防医学 | 更新时间：2026-01-09

- COVID-19疫情前后28个国家生育率变化及影响因素研究：线性模型和中断时间序列分析
- Change in fertility rate and its influencing factors in 28 countries before and after the COVID-19 pandemic: linear modeling and interrupted time-series analysis
- 陆军军医大学学报 2024年46卷第17期页码：2021-封3
- 作者机构：
  
  1.561113 贵阳，贵州医科大学公共卫生与健康学院，环境污染与疾病监控教育部重点实验室
  2.400038 重庆，陆军军医大学(第三军医大学)军事预防医学系毒理学研究所，电磁辐射与医学防护教育部重点实验室
- 作者简介：
  
  [曹佳，E-mail：caojia1962@126.com CAO Jia, E-mail: caojia1962@126.com
- 基金信息：
  
  国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC2702902)
- DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202401065
  中图分类号： C921;R181.23;R181.81
- 收稿：2024-01-14，
  
  修回：2024-04-15，
  
  纸质出版：2024-09-15
- 稿件说明：
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陈益, 陈卿, 刘涵, 等. COVID-19疫情前后28个国家生育率变化及影响因素研究：线性模型和中断时间序列分析[J]. 陆军军医大学学报, 2024,46(17):2021-封3.

Yi CHEN, Qing CHEN, Han LIU, et al. Change in fertility rate and its influencing factors in 28 countries before and after the COVID-19 pandemic: linear modeling and interrupted time-series analysis[J]. Journal of Army Medical University, 2024, 46(17): 2021-封3.
陈益, 陈卿, 刘涵, 等. COVID-19疫情前后28个国家生育率变化及影响因素研究：线性模型和中断时间序列分析[J]. 陆军军医大学学报, 2024,46(17):2021-封3. DOI： 10.16016/j.2097-0927.202401065.

Yi CHEN, Qing CHEN, Han LIU, et al. Change in fertility rate and its influencing factors in 28 countries before and after the COVID-19 pandemic: linear modeling and interrupted time-series analysis[J]. Journal of Army Medical University, 2024, 46(17): 2021-封3. DOI： 10.16016/j.2097-0927.202401065.

摘要

目的

分析COVID-19疫情暴发前后不同国家经季节和日历调整后的生育率(seasonally and calendar adjusted fertility rate，SAFR)趋势的变化及其影响因素。

方法

使用国际人类生育力数据库(Human Fertility Database

HFD)中28个国家自2012年1月至2022年12月的月度SAFR数据，以2020年12月(2020年3月疫情暴发起点加9个月妊娠过程)为节点划分为疫情前(2012.1-2020.11)和疫情后(2020.12-2022.12)进行比较，使用中断时间序列方法分析各国疫情前后的SAFR趋势(短期波动和长期趋势)是否发生变化，使用秩和检验分析疫情前SAFR、人均GDP、公共卫生和社会措施(public health and social measures，PHSM)和失业率是否与SAFR趋势变化有关。

结果

疫情后28个国家中19个国家的SAFR出现短期下降，随后反弹。对于长期趋势，2个国家由下降趋势转为上升趋势，8个国家由上升趋势转为下降趋势，6个国家的SAFR保持不变。SAFR变化率下降主要集中在部分中欧国家以及地中海西岸的国家，而SAFR变化率增加的国家主要分布在北欧以及西欧地区。SAFR无短期波动的国家疫情前的SAFR低于有短期波动的国家(

=0.041)，SAFR变化率下降国家的疫情前SAFR(

=0.005)与人均GDP(

=0.027)均低于SAFR变化率上升国家。未发现SAFR短期波动或长期趋势与PHSM严重程度指数或失业率存在关联。

结论

COVID-19疫情对28个国家的SAFR造成了不同的短期和长期影响，特别是经济水平和疫情前SAFR相对较低的国家可能更易遭到进一步打击。COVID-19疫情对各国人口的更长期影响值得进一步关注。

Abstract

Objective

To analyze the changes in fertility trends of seasonally and calendar adjusted fertility rate (SAFR) in different countries before and after the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak and investigate the influence factors.

Methods

Monthly SAFR data of 28 countries during January 2012 and December 2022 were collected in the Human Fertility Database (HFD). The node of December 2020 (9-month delay in gestation from the start of the March 2020 outbreak) was used as the point of division for comparison between the pre- (2012.1-2020.11) and post-pandemic (2020.12-2022.12) periods. Interrupted time series was used to analyze whether fertility rate trends (short-term fluctuations and long-term trends) changed before and after the pandemic in each country. Wilcoxon test was employed to analyze whether pre-pandemic fertility rate

GDP per capita

public health and social measures (PHSM) and unemployment rate were associated with the changes in fertility trends.

Results

Nineteen out of the 28 countries experienced a short-term decline in fertility rate after the pandemic

which subsequently rebounded. With respect to long-term trends

2 countries shifted from a declining trend to an increasing trend

8 countries shifted from an increasing trend to a declining trend

and 6 countries had their SAFR unchanged. The SAFR decline was mainly observed in some of the countries of Central Europe and the Western Mediterranean

while its increase was mainly in Northern and Western Europe. Pre-pandemic SAFR was lower in the countries with no short-term fluctuations in SAFR than those with short-term fluctuations (

=0.041). The countries with declining rate of SAFR had significantly lower pre-pandemic SAFR (

=0.005) and GDP per capita (

=0.027) than the countries with increasing rate of SAFR. No association was found between short-term fluctuations or long-term trends in fertility rate and the PHSM severity index or unemployment rate.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic has had varying short- and long-term impacts on SAFR in 28 countries

with the countries with relatively low economic levels and pre-pandemic SAFRs more vulnerable to further blows. The longer-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the populations of each country deserve further attention.

关键词

Keywords

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