绝经期非肿瘤女性发生静脉血栓栓塞症的危险因素分析及预测模型构建

牛敬荣; 张丽金; 杨文爽

doi:10.16016/j.1000-5404.202005211

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绝经期非肿瘤女性发生静脉血栓栓塞症的危险因素分析及预测模型构建

临床医学 | 更新时间：2026-01-09

- 绝经期非肿瘤女性发生静脉血栓栓塞症的危险因素分析及预测模型构建
- Risk factors of venous thromboembolism in postmenopausal women without neoplasms and establishment of the prediction model
- 第三军医大学学报 2020年42卷第22期页码：2224-2230
- 作者机构：
  
  100020 北京市, 首都医科大学附属北京朝阳医院血管外科
- 作者简介：
  
  [ 牛敬荣，E-mail:niujingrong2@163.com NIU Jingrong, E-mail:E-mail:niujingrong2@163.com
- 基金信息：
  
  2018年首都医科大学附属北京朝阳医院院级课题(201805127)
- DOI：10.16016/j.1000-5404.202005211
  中图分类号： R181.23;R364.15;R711.51
- 收稿：2020-05-25，
  
  修回：2020-08-07，
  
  纸质出版：2020-11-30
- 稿件说明：
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牛敬荣, 张丽金, 杨文爽. 绝经期非肿瘤女性发生静脉血栓栓塞症的危险因素分析及预测模型构建[J]. 第三军医大学学报, 2020,42(22):2224-2230.

Jingrong NIU, Lijin ZHANG, Wenshuang YANG. Risk factors of venous thromboembolism in postmenopausal women without neoplasms and establishment of the prediction model[J]. Journal of Third Military Medical University, 2020, 42(22): 2224-2230.
牛敬荣, 张丽金, 杨文爽. 绝经期非肿瘤女性发生静脉血栓栓塞症的危险因素分析及预测模型构建[J]. 第三军医大学学报, 2020,42(22):2224-2230. DOI： 10.16016/j.1000-5404.202005211.

Jingrong NIU, Lijin ZHANG, Wenshuang YANG. Risk factors of venous thromboembolism in postmenopausal women without neoplasms and establishment of the prediction model[J]. Journal of Third Military Medical University, 2020, 42(22): 2224-2230. DOI： 10.16016/j.1000-5404.202005211.

摘要

目的

探究绝经期非肿瘤女性发生静脉血栓栓塞症(venous thromboembolism

VTE)的危险因素，并构建预测模型。

方法

选取2018年5月至2019年12月我科收治的268例绝经期非肿瘤女性疑似VTE的患者作为研究对象。以彩色多普勒超声确诊是否发生VTE分为VTE组(

=42)和非VTE组(

=226)。对两组的临床资料进行单因素分析和多因素Logistic回归分析，并建立预测模型，用灵敏度、特异度、ROC曲线下面积及预测正确率评价模型的预测效果。

结果

经多因素Logistic回归分析发现合并糖尿病(

值=15.318，95%

=6.563~74.275，

=0.036)、Caprini评分≥5分(

值=7.737，95%

=2.459~13.168，

=0.012)、D-二聚体

0.5 mg/L(

值=10.602，95%

=3.767~17.706，

=0.000)、三酰甘油(Triglyceride，TG)

1.7 mmol/L(

值=2.651，95%

=1.238~5.357，

=0.002)、黄体生成素(Luteinizing Hormone，LH)

52.3 U/L(

值=1.539，95%

=1.127~4.673，

=0.031)、雌二醇(Estrodiol，E

)

30 nmol/L(

=1.164，95%

=1.064~2.058，

=0.047)为绝经期非肿瘤女性发生VTE的危险因素。根据危险因素得出预测模型:Prob=1/(e

^-Y

)，Y=36.578-2.729×合并糖尿病-2.046×Caprini评分-2.361×血清D-二聚体-0.975×血清TG-0.431×血清LH-0.152×血清E

。模型经ROC曲线分析得AUC为0.915，灵敏度为90.30%，特异度为94.10%。通过验证得出模型预测的正确率为88.43%。

结论

合并糖尿病、Caprini评分≥5分、D-二聚体

0.5 mg/L、TG

1.7 mmol/L、LH

52.3 U/L、E

30 nmol/L是绝经期非肿瘤女性发生VTE的危险因素，根据危险因素建立预测模型能有效评估绝经期非肿瘤女性VTE的发生风险。

Abstract

Objective

To explore the risk factors and establish a prediction model of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in postmenopausal women without neoplasms.

Methods

A total of 268 postmenopausal women w

ith suspected VTE without neoplasms admitted to our department from May 2018 to December 2019 were divided into VTE group (

=42) and non-VTE group (

=226) based on color Doppler ultrasound findings. The clinical data of the 2 groups were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify the risk factors of VTE. The prediction model was established based on the identified risk factors and evaluated for its sensitivity

specificity

area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve

and the prediction accuracy.

Results

Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified diabetes mellitus (

=15.318

95%

: 6.563-74.275

=0.036)

a Caprini score ≥5 (

=7.737

95%

: 2.459-13.168

=0.012)

D-dimer

0.5 mg/L (

=10.602

95%

: 3.767-17.706

=0.000)

triglycerides (TG)

1.7 mmol/L (

=2.651

95%

: 1.238-5.357

=0.002)

luteinizing hormone (LH)

52.3 IU/L (

=1.539

95%

: 1.127-4.673

=0.031)

and estradiol (E

)

30 nmol/L (

=1.164

95%

: 1.064-2.058

=0.047) as the risk factors for VTE in postmenopausal women without neoplasms. Based on these risk factors

the prediction model for VTS was derived: Prob=1/(e^

-Y

)

where Y=36.578-2.729×combined diabetes-2.046×Caprini score-2.361×serum D-dimer-0.975×serum TG-0.431×serum LH-0.152×serum E

. ROC curve analysis showed that this prediction model had an AUC of 0.915 with a sensitivity of 90.30% and a specificity of 94.10%. The verification results showed that this model had an accuracy of 88.43% for predicting VTE in postmenopausal women without neoplasms.

Conclusion

Diabetes

a Caprini sc

ore ≥5

a D-dimer level

0.5 mg/L

a TG level

1.7 mmol/L

a LH level

52.3 U/L

and an E

level

30 nmol/L are all risk factors of VTE in postmenopausal women without neoplasms. The predictive model constructed based on these risk factors can effectively assess the risk of VTE in these women.

关键词

Keywords

references

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