基于气象因素的手足口病发病风险预测模型

陈虹汝; 周亮; 李高明; 易大莉; 易东; 刘岭

doi:10.16016/j.1000-5404.201701138

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

基于气象因素的手足口病发病风险预测模型

公共卫生与预防医学 | 更新时间：2026-01-09

- 基于气象因素的手足口病发病风险预测模型
- Development of a risk prediction model for hand-foot-mouth disease based on meteorological factors
- 第三军医大学学报 2017年39卷第12期页码：1292-1297
- 作者机构：
  
  400038，重庆，第三军医大学军事预防医学院卫生统计学教研室
- 作者简介：
  
  [刘岭，E-mail: liuling_505@sina.comLiu Ling, E-mail:liuling_505@sina.com
- 基金信息：
  
  国家社会科学基金面上项目(14BTJ019);国家自然科学基金面上项目(81473068)
- DOI：10.16016/j.1000-5404.201701138
  中图分类号： P42;R195.4;R512.5
- 收稿：2017-01-24，
  
  修回：2017-03-13，
  
  纸质出版：2017-06-30
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
陈虹汝, 周亮, 李高明, 等. 基于气象因素的手足口病发病风险预测模型[J]. 第三军医大学学报, 2017,39(12):1292-1297.

Hongru Chen, Liang Zhou, Gaoming Li, et al. Development of a risk prediction model for hand-foot-mouth disease based on meteorological factors[J]. Journal of Third Military Medical University, 2017, 39(12): 1292-1297.
陈虹汝, 周亮, 李高明, 等. 基于气象因素的手足口病发病风险预测模型[J]. 第三军医大学学报, 2017,39(12):1292-1297. DOI： 10.16016/j.1000-5404.201701138.

Hongru Chen, Liang Zhou, Gaoming Li, et al. Development of a risk prediction model for hand-foot-mouth disease based on meteorological factors[J]. Journal of Third Military Medical University, 2017, 39(12): 1292-1297. DOI： 10.16016/j.1000-5404.201701138.

摘要

目的

探讨我国手足口病发病与气象因素的关系，建立基于气象因素的手足口病发病风险预测模型。

方法

收集2010-2014年全国31个省市手足口病月发病率资料和当地同期气象资料；利用Spearman相关分析、Logistic回归分析筛选影响手足口病发病的气象危险因素；应用哈佛疾病风险指数模型建立预测模型；采用ROC曲线下面积评价模型优劣。

结果

影响手足口病高发的气象危险因素分别为月平均气温12~22 ℃(

=13.922)、月平均气温大于22 ℃(

=25.932)、标准大气压地区(

=7.953)、月降水量大于100 mm(

=1.439) 及月平均湿度大于70%(

=1.597)。根据以上气象因素建立手足口病发病风险预测模型，并绘制风险评估图，模型的ROC曲线下面积为0.810。

结论

气象因素对手足口病的发生、发展过程存在影响；成功建立了基于气象因素的手足口病发病风险预测模型。

Abstract

Objective

To explore the relationship between the outbreak of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD)and meteorological factors in China and develop a risk prediction model for HFMD.

Methods

The data of monthly HFMD incidences in 31provinces(cities) and the local meteorological data from 2010 to 2014 were collected. Spearman correlation analysis and logistic regression were used to identify the meteorological risk factors for HFMD

and the risk prediction model incorporating these meteorological variables was developed based on Harvard disease risk index model. The performance of this model in predicting the risk of HFMD was assessed using the area under the ROC curve.

Results

The meteorological risk factors for HFMD includes the monthly average temperature of 12 to 22℃(

=13.922)

monthly average temperature above 22 ℃(

=25.932)

a region with a normal atmospheric pressure(

=7.953)

monthly rainfall above 100 mm(

=1.439) and monthly average humidity above 70%(

=1.597). The risk prediction model for HFMD established using these meteorological variables had an area under the ROC curve of 0.810.

Conclusion

Meteorological factors can influence the risk of HFMD

and this risk prediction model may provide assistance in establishing an early warning system for HFMD outbreak and can have practical values in HFMD prevention and control.

关键词

Keywords

references

中华人民共和国卫生部.手足口病诊疗指南(2010年版)[J].国际呼吸杂志, 2010, 30(24): 1473-1475. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.1673-436X.2010.024.001.

Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China. Diagnosis and treatment guideline on hand-foot-mouth disease(2010)[J]. Inter J Respir, 2010, 30(24): 1473-1475. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.1673-436X. 2010.024.001.

[中华人民共和国国家卫生和计划生育委员会. 疫情播报[EB/OL ] . [2016-10-10 ] . http://www.moh.gov.cn/zwgk/yqbb3/ejlist.shtml http://www.moh.gov.cn/zwgk/yqbb3/ejlist.shtml .

[National Health and Family Planning Commission of People's Republicof China. Epidemic report[EB/OL ] . [2016-10-10 ] . http://www.moh.gov.cn/zwgk/yqbb3/ejlist.shtml http://www.moh.gov.cn/zwgk/yqbb3/ejlist.shtml .

Chen K T, Chang H L, Wang S T, et al. Epidemiologic features of hand-foot-mouth disease and herpangina caused by enterovirus 71 in Taiwan, 1998-2005[J]. Pediatrics, 2007, 120(2): e244-e252. DOI:10.1542/peds.2006-3331.

Tu P V, Thao N T, Perera D, et al. Epidemiologic and virologic investigation of hand, foot, and mouth disease, southern Vietnam, 2005[J]. Emerging Infect Dis, 2007, 13(11): 1733-1741. DOI:10.3201/eid1311.070632.

Miyazawa I, Azegami Y, Kasuo S, et al. Prevalence of enterovirus from patients with herpangina and hand, foot and mouth disease in Nagano Prefecture, Japan, 2007[J]. Jpn J Infect Dis, 2008, 61(3): 247-248. DOI:10.1016/S0022-2836(02)01336-0.

Urashima M, Shindo N, Okabe N. Seasonal models of herpangina and hand-foot-mouth disease to simulate annual fluctuations in urban warming in Tokyo[J]. Jpn J Infect Dis, 2003, 56(2): 48-53.

[公共卫生科学数据中心. 手足口病数据[DB/OL ] . [2016-10-10 ] . http://www.phsciencedata.cn/Share/index.jsp http://www.phsciencedata.cn/Share/index.jsp .

[Public health science data center. Hand, foot and mouth disease data [DB/OL ] .[2016-10-10 ] . http://www.phsciencedata.cn/Share/index.jsp http://www.phsciencedata.cn/Share/index.jsp .

[中华人民共和国国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴[EB/OL ] . [2016-10-10 ] . http://www.stats.gov.cn/ http://www.stats.gov.cn/ .

[National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China. China statistic yearbook [EB/OL ] .[2016-10-10 ] . http://www.stats.gov.cn/ http://www.stats.gov.cn/ .

[中国气象局国家气象信息中心. 数据服务[DB/OL ] . [2016-10-10 ] . http://www.nmic.cn/web/index.htm http://www.nmic.cn/web/index.htm .

[National Meteorological Information Center.Data services[DB/OL ] .[2016-10-10 ] . http://www.nmic.cn/web/index.htm http://www.nmic.cn/web/index.htm .

[Harvard School of Public Health.Harvard disease risk index[EB/OL ] .[2016-10-10 ] . http://www.diseaseriskindex.harvard.edu/ http://www.diseaseriskindex.harvard.edu/ .

Colditz G A, Atwood K A, Emmons K, et al. Harvard report on cancer prevention volume 4: Harvard Cancer Risk Index. Risk Index Working Group, Harvard Center for Cancer Prevention[J]. Cancer Causes Control, 2000, 11(6): 477-488.DOI: 10.1023/A:1008984432272.

刘立, 韩江涛, 庞志钊, 等.石家庄市气象因素与手足口病流行的关系研究[J].中国全科医学, 2013, 16(3): 326-328. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-9572.2013.01.107.

Liu L, Han J T, Pang Z Z, et al. Relationship between meteorological factors and hand-foot-mouth disease in Shijia-zhuang[J]. Chin General Pract, 2013, 16(3): 326-328. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-9572.2013.01.107.

游先祥, 林赟, 毛志鹏, 等.昆明市2014年手足口病发病与气象因素相关性分析[J].皮肤病与性病, 2016, 38(4): 284-286. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-1310.2016.04.018.

You X X, Lin Y, Mao Z P, et al. Epidemiological characteristics of hand foot and month disease and correlation with meteorological factors in Kunming City in 2014[J]. J Dermatol Venereol, 2016, 38(4): 284-286. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-1310.2016.04.018.

刘峰, 刘凤仁, 李刚.深圳市龙岗区2011-2014年手足口病特征及与气象因素相关性[J].中国热带医学, 2016, 16(7): 688-691. DOI: 10.13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r.2016.07.16.

Liu F, Liu F R, Li G. Epidemiological characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD) and correlation with meteorological factors in Longgang district, Shenzhen city, 2011-2014[J]. China Tropical Med, 2016, 16(7): 688-691. DOI: 10.13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r.2016.07.16.

孙军玲, 张静.手足口病流行病学研究进展[J].中华流行病学杂志, 2009, 30(9): 973-976. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2009.09.027.

Sun J L, Zhang J. A review on the advancement of epidemiology on hand-foot-mouth disease[J]. Chin J Epidemiol, 2009, 30(9): 973-976. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2009.09.027.

浏览量

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

重庆地区2009年手足口病病原分离鉴定及病毒基因组特征

2007-2008年北京地区CA16VP1区系统进化分析