Achievements and hidden concerns in neural tube defect prevention and control in China: temporal trends in disease burden (1990 to 2023) and a 10-year forecasting based on GBD 2023

Yang Yixiao; Gao Fumei; Ma Yuqiong; Shi Hongxia; Li Yulei; Li Jianting

doi:10.16016/j.2097-0927.202604067

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Achievements and hidden concerns in neural tube defect prevention and control in China: temporal trends in disease burden (1990 to 2023) and a 10-year forecasting based on GBD 2023

Monographic Reports | 更新时间：2026-09-16

- Achievements and hidden concerns in neural tube defect prevention and control in China: temporal trends in disease burden (1990 to 2023) and a 10-year forecasting based on GBD 2023
- Journal of Army Medical University Vol. 48, Issue 17, Pages: 2418-2427(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.山西医科大学，医学科学院，出生缺陷与细胞再生山西省重点实验室，山西太原
  2.山西医科大学，煤炭环境致病与防治教育部重点实验室，出生缺陷与细胞再生山西省重点实验室，山西太原
  3.山西医科大学，基础医学院生物化学与分子生物学教研室，出生缺陷与细胞再生山西省重点实验室，山西太原
  4.吕梁市第一人民医院妇科，山西吕梁
- 作者简介：
  
  Li Jianting，E-mail： lijianting2021@sxmu.edu.cn
- 基金信息：
  
  the Key Project of Joint Regional Innovation and Development Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China(U23A20420);the Young Scientists Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China(82201841);the Project of Basic Research Program of Shanxi Province(202403021221156;202303021221135);the “Billion Project” Science and Technology Guidance Project of Higher Education in Shanxi Province（BYBLD）.
- DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202604067
  CLC： R-05;R195.4;R742.89
- Received：18 April 2026，
  
  Revised：2026-06-17，
  
  Accepted：06 July 2026，
  
  Published：15 September 2026
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
杨逸逍，高福梅，马雨琼，等.中国神经管畸形防控成效与隐忧并存：基于GBD 2023的1990—2023年疾病负担变迁与未来十年预测［J］.陆军军医大学学报，2026，48（17）：2418-2427.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202604067.

Yang Y X，Gao F M，Ma Y Q，et al.Achievements and hidden concerns in neural tube defect prevention and control in China： temporal trends in disease burden （1990 to 2023） and a 10-year forecasting based on GBD 2023［J］.J Army Med Univ，2026，48（17）：2418-2427.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202604067.
杨逸逍，高福梅，马雨琼，等.中国神经管畸形防控成效与隐忧并存：基于GBD 2023的1990—2023年疾病负担变迁与未来十年预测［J］.陆军军医大学学报，2026，48（17）：2418-2427.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202604067. DOI：

Yang Y X，Gao F M，Ma Y Q，et al.Achievements and hidden concerns in neural tube defect prevention and control in China： temporal trends in disease burden （1990 to 2023） and a 10-year forecasting based on GBD 2023［J］.J Army Med Univ，2026，48（17）：2418-2427.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202604067. DOI：

摘要

目的

神经管畸形（neural tube defects， NTDs）严重威胁围产期存活与远期生存质量。叶酸干预效果显著，但疾病负担的动态演变和残余风险尚未完全明确。通过分析1990—2023年中国NTDs负担的时间趋势、年龄-时期-队列效应及2024—2033年疾病负担预测，可明确干预重点方向。

方法

基于2023年全球疾病负担研究（Global Burden of Disease Study 2023，GBD 2023）数据库，提取中国NTDs的患病率、死亡率及伤残调整寿命年（disability-adjusted life years，DALYs）数据。采用GBD全球参考人口计算年龄标准化率（age-standardized rate，ASR）。运用Joinpoint回归模型识别时间趋势转折点，计算年度变化百分比（annual percent change，APC）和平均年度变化百分比（average annual percent change，AAPC）及95%

。采用年龄-时期-队列模型，将1994—2023年数据划分为5年间隔（年龄组：

5岁至80~84岁；出生队列：1914—1918年至2019—2023年），评估年龄-时期-队列效应对NTDs患病率变化的贡献。应用自回归移动平均（autoregressive integrated moving average，ARIMA）模型预测2024—2033年中国NTDs的年龄标准化患病率（age-standardized prevalence rate，ASPR）、年龄标准化死亡率（age-standardized mortality rate，ASMR）及年龄标准化DALYs率（age-standardized DALYs rate，ASDR）。

结果

1990—2023年，中国NTDs的ASPR、ASMR和ASDR的AAPC分别为-0.90%（95%

：-1.01%~-0.78%）、-8.51%（95%

：-8.84%~-8.18%）和-7.89%（95%

：-8.04%~-7.57%），总体呈显著下降趋势。Joinpoint回归显示，ASPR呈三段式波动：1990—2000年持续下降（1990—1995年：APC=-7.98%，

0.05；1995—2000年：APC=-4.80%，

0.05）；2000—2019年总体回升（2000—2005年：APC=0.56%，

0.05；2005—2010年：APC=5.18%，

0.05；2010—2015年：APC=0.01%，

0.05；2015—2019年：APC=2.33%，

0.05）；2019—2023年再次下降（APC=-0.23%，

0.05）。ASMR和ASDR均呈1990—1997年小幅上升（ASMR：APC=1.57%，

0.05；ASDR：APC=1.44%，

0.05）、1997—2021年持续下降（各阶段

均

0.05）、2021—2023年小幅回升（ASMR：APC=1.43%，

0.05；ASDR：APC=0.91%，

0.05）的三阶段特征。性别分层显示，男性ASPR始终高于女性；ASMR和ASDR在2004年前男性高于女性，2004年后女性反超男性。年龄分布方面，患病人数峰值在5~9岁，死亡人数和DALYs数高度集中于新生儿期（

1岁）。年龄-时期-队列模型显示，年龄效应以0~5岁婴幼儿期负担最重，随年龄增长快速下降；时期效应显示1994—2023年整体呈下降趋势，但2015年后效应减弱（

由1999—2003年的0.91升至2019—2023年的1.30）；队列效应方面：以1964年为参照，风险于早期队列处于较低水平，随后逐渐升高至1969—1973年达峰值，此后总体波动下降，2004—2008年降至近期低点后再次回升，2019—2023年略有回落。ARIMA模型预测2024—2033年ASPR、ASMR及ASDR均呈小幅上升趋势，至2033年分别达6.78/10万（95%

：5.11~8.45）、0.12/10万（95%

：-0.60~0.83）及12.37/10万（95%

：-51.15~75.89）。

结论

1990—2023年中国NTDs疾病负担总体降幅显著，但患病率中期回升及未来预测上升趋势提示防控成效尚不稳固，需针对残余风险精准施策。对策　在巩固叶酸普服基础上实施精准分层干预；针对叶酸不应答人群探索肌醇等新型联合干预方式；强化高龄及高危人群围孕期叶酸监测与随访，扩大NTDs产前筛查服务的覆盖范围；在山西等高发省份建设“预防-筛查-干预”一体化示范区；利用队列数据构建风险预警模型，推动从普适增补向分层精准预防转变，并完善监测信息跨部门共享机制。

Abstract

Objective

Neural tube defects (NTDs) pose a serious threat to perinatal survival and long-term quality of life. Although folic acid intervention has been effective

the dynamic evolution of disease burden and residual risks remain incompletely elucidated. By analyzing the temporal trends of NTDs burden in China from 1990 to 2023

age-period-cohort effects

and projections for 2024

2033

this study aims to identify priority directions for intervention.

Methods

Data on prevalence

mortality

and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of NTDs in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 database. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) were calculated using the GBD global reference population. Joinpoint regression was employed to identify turning points in temporal trends

and annual percent change (APC)

and average annual percen

t change (AAPC)

with their 95% confidence intervals (

). An age-period-cohort model was applied to data from 1994

2023

stratified into 5-year intervals (age groups:

5 years to 80-84 years; birth cohorts: 1914

1918 to 2019

2023)

to assess the contributions of age

period

and cohort effects to changes in NTDs prevalence. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR)

age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR)

and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of NTDs in China from 2024 to 2033.

Results

From 1990 to 2023

the AAPC of ASPR

ASMR

and ASDR for NTDs in China was -0.90% (95%

: -1.01% to -0.78%)

-8.51% (95%

: -8.84% to -8.18%)

and -7.89% (95%

: -8.04% to -7.57%)

respectively

indicating significant overall downward trends. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed a 3-phase fluctuation in ASPR: a continuous decline from 1990 to 2000 (1990

1995: APC=-7.98%

0.05; 1995

2000: APC=-4.80%

0.05); an overall rebound from 2000 to 2019 (2000

2005: APC=0.56%

0.05; 2005

2010: APC=5.18%

0.05; 2010

2015: APC=0.01%

0.05; 2015

2019: APC=2.33%

0.05); and another decline from 2019 to 2023 (APC=-0.23%

0.05). Both ASMR and ASDR exhibited a 3-stage pattern: a slight increase from 1990 to 1997 (ASMR: APC=1.57%

0.05; ASDR: APC=1.44%

0.05)

a sustained decline from 1997 to 2021 (all

0.05)

and a modest rebound from 2021 to 2023 (ASMR: APC=1.43%

0.05; ASDR: APC=0.91%

0.05). Sex-stratified analysis showed that ASPR was consistently higher in

males than in females; however

ASMR and ASDR were higher in males before 2004 but reversed to consistently higher in females after 2004. In terms of age distribution

the peak number of prevalent cases occurred in the 5

9 year age group

while deaths and DALYs were highly concentrated in the neonatal period (

1 year). The age-period-cohort model demonstrated that age effects were heaviest during infancy (0

5 years)

declining rapidly with increasing age; period effects showed an overall downward trend from 1994

2023

but weakened after 2015 (relative risk increased from 0.91 in 1999

2003 to 1.30 in 2019

2023); cohort effects

with 1964 as the reference

showed that risk was at a relatively low level in early cohorts

gradually rising to a peak in 1969

1973

followed by an overall fluctuating decline

dropping to a recent low in 2004

2008 before rebounding again

with a slight decline in 2019

2023. The ARIMA model projected a slight upward trend in ASPR

ASMR

and ASDR from 2024 to 2033

reaching 6.78/100 000 (95%

: 5.11 to 8.45)

0.12/100 000 (95%

: -0.60 to 0.83)

and 12.37/100 000 (95%

: -51.15 to 75.89)

respectively

by 2033.

Conclusion

The overall burden of NTDs in China decreased substantially from 1990 to 2023

but the mid-term rebound in prevalence and the projected upward trend indicate that the gains in prevention and control remain fragile

necessitating targeted interventions addressing residual risks. Countermeasures　Precision stratified interventions should be implemented on the foundation of consolidated universal folic acid supplementation; novel combined interventions such as inositol should be explored for folic acid non-responders; periconceptional folic acid monitoring and follow-up for advanced maternal age and high-risk populations should be strengthened

and the coverage of prenatal NTDs screening services expanded; integrated demonstration zones for “prevention-screening-intervention” should be established in high-prevalence provinces such as Shanxi; risk prediction models should be constructed using cohort data to promote the transition from universal supplementation to stratified precision prevention

and cross-departmental information sharing mechanisms for surveillance should be improved.

关键词

Keywords

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