Toward pecision-based prevention: trends in the burden of adverse effects of medical  treatment in China based on GBD data and identification of high-risk elderly male groups

LI Qiongqiong; YE Dan; YANG Qingmei

doi:10.16016/j.2097-0927.202512003

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Toward pecision-based prevention: trends in the burden of adverse effects of medical treatment in China based on GBD data and identification of high-risk elderly male groups

Think Tank for Public Health | 更新时间：2026-03-02

- Toward pecision-based prevention: trends in the burden of adverse effects of medical treatment in China based on GBD data and identification of high-risk elderly male groups
- Journal of Army Medical University Vol. 48, Issue 4, Pages: 514-522(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.上海市公共卫生临床中心，肾内科，上海
  2.上海市公共卫生临床中心，结核科，上海
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  the Intramural Project of Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center(KY-GW-2025-30)
- DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202512003
  CLC： R-05;R195.4;
- Received：01 December 2025，
  
  Revised：2026-01-12，
  
  Accepted：16 January 2026，
  
  Published：28 February 2026
- 稿件说明：
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李琼琼，叶丹，杨青梅.面向精准防控：基于GBD数据对中国医疗不良反应疾病负担趋势及老年男性高风险群体的识别［J］.陆军军医大学学报，2026，48（04）：514-522.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202512003.

LI Q Q，YE D，YANG Q M.Toward pecision-based prevention： trends in the burden of adverse effects of medical treatment in China based on GBD data and identification of high-risk elderly male groups［J］.J Army Med Univ，2026，48（04）：514-522.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202512003.
李琼琼，叶丹，杨青梅.面向精准防控：基于GBD数据对中国医疗不良反应疾病负担趋势及老年男性高风险群体的识别［J］.陆军军医大学学报，2026，48（04）：514-522.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202512003. DOI：

LI Q Q，YE D，YANG Q M.Toward pecision-based prevention： trends in the burden of adverse effects of medical treatment in China based on GBD data and identification of high-risk elderly male groups［J］.J Army Med Univ，2026，48（04）：514-522.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202512003. DOI：

摘要

目的

基于全球疾病负担（Global Burden of Disease，GBD）2023年开放数据，分析1990—2023年我国医疗不良反应（adverse effects of medical treatment，AEMT）负担状况和变化趋势。

方法

本研究基于GBD 2023数据，提取1990—2023年我国AEMT的发病数、患病数、伤残调整生命年数（disability-adjusted life years，DALYs）及死亡数，同时提取年龄标化发病率（age-standardized incidence rate，ASIR）、年龄标化患病率（age-standardized prevalence rate，ASPR）、年龄标化伤残调整生命年率（age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate，ASDR）和年龄标化死亡率（age-standardized mortality rate，ASMR）等数据。计算ASIR、ASPR、ASDR及ASMR的年度变化百分比（annual percent change，APC）、平均年度变化百分比（average annual percent change，AAPC）及其95% 可信区间（95% confidence interval，95%

），以分析国内AEMT疾病负担趋势。比较 1990、2020 及 2023 年我国不同年龄与性别群体中AEMT疾病负担的流行病学特征与差异。

结果

1990—2023年，我国AEMT的发病、患病、DALYs 数和死亡数分别由432 784（95%

：347 489~526 244）、33 087（95%

：24 103~42 381）、686 404（95%

：398 451~1 086 894）、11 426（95%

： 7 233~17 456）变化至2020年的342 349（95%

： 279 429~423 443）、26 165（95%

：19 529~33 662）、121 245（95%

：90 707~155 623）、3 337（95%

：2 494~4 212），2023年的372 069（95%

：303 152~464 618）、28 436（95%

：21 029~36 643）、107 384（95%

：79 527~137 417）、3 128（95%

：2 305~3 985）。1990—2023年间，ASIR、ASPR、ASDR、ASMR 的AAPC值分别为-0.994 8% （95%

：-1.199 7%~-0.789 5%）、-0.993 3%（95%

：-1.202 2%~-0.783 9%）、-5.968 4% （95%

：-6.195 9%~-5.740 3%）、-5.432 2 （95%

：-5.658 8%~-5.205 1%）（

0.05）。1990年我国低年龄组的发病率、死亡率均较高，女性高于男性，高龄组男性高于女性。2020 年及2023年低年龄组女性发病率高于男性、高龄男性发病率高于女性，多数年龄段间同年份、同

年龄段中男性和女性之间发病率的差值较1990年的有所缩小，高龄男性死亡率均高于同时期的女性。

结论

1990—2023年我国AEMT疾病负担指标发病、患病、DALYs和死亡情况整体呈现下降趋势。在老年群体中，AEMT发病率及死亡率随年龄增长而增加，而且老年男性更容易死于 AEMT。对策　加大医疗培训和资源投入，提升诊断、治疗AEMT能力，持续加强AEMT防控，针对老年人，尤其是老年男性实施精准干预。

Abstract

Objective

To analyze the status and trends of the burden of adverse effects of medical treatment (AEMT) in China from 1990 to 2023 using open data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023.

Methods

Based on the GBD 2023 data

we extracted the number of incident cases

prevalent cases

disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)

and deaths due to AEMT in China from 1990 to 2023. We also extracted age-standardized rates

including the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR)

age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR)

age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR)

and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). The annual percent change (APC)

average annual percent change (AAPC)

and their 95% confidence intervals (95%

) for ASIR

ASPR

ASDR

and ASMR were calculated to analyze trends in the burden of AEMT in China. Epidemiological characteristics and differences in the AEMT burden among different age and sex groups in China were compared for the years 1990

2020

and 2023.

Results

From 1990 to 2023

the number of incident cases

prevalent cases

DALYs

and deaths due to AEMT in China changed from 432 784 (95%

:347 489 to 526 244)

33 087 (95%

: 24 103 to 42 381)

686 404(95%

:398 451 to 1 086 894)

and 11 426(95%

:7 233 to 17 456) to 342 349(95%

: 279 429 to 423 443)

26 165(95%

: 19 529 to 33 662)

121 245(95%

: 90 707 to 155 623)

and 3 337(95%

: 2 494 to 4 212) in 2020

and further to 372 069 (95%

: 303 152 to 464 618)

28 436 (95%

: 21 029 to 36 6

43)

107 384(95%

79 527 to 137 417)

and 3 128 (95%

: 2 305 to 3 985) in 2023. From 1990 to 2023

the AAPC values for ASIR

ASPR

ASDR

and ASMR were -0.994 8%(95%

: -1.199 7% to -0.789 5%)

-0.993 3%(95%

: -1.202 2% to -0.783 9%)

-5.968 4%(95%

: -6.195 9% to -5.740 3%)

and -5.432 2% (95%

: -5.658 8% to -5.205 1%)

respectively

0.05). In 1990

incidence and mortality rates were higher in younger age groups and among females compared to males

while rates were higher among older males compared to older females. In 2020 and 2023

incidence was higher among females than males in younger age groups and higher among older males than older females; the differences in incidence rates between males and females within the same age group and year narrowed compared to 1990

while mortality among older males remained higher than among females in the same periods. Conclusion From 1990 to 2023

key indicators of the AEMT burden in China-incidence

prevalence

DALYs

and mortality-showed an overall declining trend. Among the elderly population

AEMT incidence and mortality increased with age

and elderly males were more likely to die from AEMT than elderly women. Countermeasures　Enhancing investment in medical training and resources to improve the capability for diagnosing and treating AEMT

continuously strengthening AEMT prevention and control

and implementing tailored interventions for the elderly

particularly elderly males.

关键词

Keywords

references

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