Achievements and challenges: Key priorities for prevention and control in the elderly amid the declining disease burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia in China

ZHANG Bowen; LIU Yunlong; DING Mengdi; ZHAO Ying; ZHAO Yu; LIU Xiaomei; FANG Kai; LI Meng; WANG Xuguang; HUANG Yuhong; FAN Shanshan

doi:10.16016/j.2097-0927.202510054

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Achievements and challenges: Key priorities for prevention and control in the elderly amid the declining disease burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia in China

Think Tank for Public Health | 更新时间：2025-12-30

- Achievements and challenges: Key priorities for prevention and control in the elderly amid the declining disease burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia in China
- Journal of Army Medical University Vol. 47, Issue 24, Pages: 3150-3159(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.天津中医药大学第二附属医院：，临床药理中心，天津
  4.天津中医药大学第二附属医院：，泌尿外科，天津
  2.中国中医科学院西苑医院泌尿外科，北京
  3.天津中医药大学第一附属医院男病科，国家中医针灸临床医学研究中心，天津
- 作者简介：
  
  FAN Shanshan， E-mail：fanshanshan420@163.com
- 基金信息：
  
  the Project of High-level Key Discipline Construction Program for Traditional Chinese Medicine From National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine （Clinical Chinese Medicine, zyyzdxk-2023012）, the Youth Qihuang Scholar Talent Project of National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine—Tianjin Major Public Health Project(zyyzdxk-2023012);the National Natural Science Foundation for Young Scholars of China(82405405)
- DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202510054
  CLC： R195.4;R339.34;R697.3
- Received：20 October 2025，
  
  Revised：2025-11-09，
  
  Published：30 December 2025
- 稿件说明：
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张博文，刘云龙，丁萌迪，等.成效与挑战：中国良性前列腺增生疾病负担下降趋势下的老年人群防控重点［J］.陆军军医大学学报，2025，47（24）：3150-3159.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202510054.

ZHANG B W，LIU Y L，DING M D，et al.Achievements and challenges： Key priorities for prevention and control in the elderly amid the declining disease burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia in China［J］.J Army Med Univ，2025，47（24）：3150-3159.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202510054.
张博文，刘云龙，丁萌迪，等.成效与挑战：中国良性前列腺增生疾病负担下降趋势下的老年人群防控重点［J］.陆军军医大学学报，2025，47（24）：3150-3159.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202510054. DOI：

ZHANG B W，LIU Y L，DING M D，et al.Achievements and challenges： Key priorities for prevention and control in the elderly amid the declining disease burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia in China［J］.J Army Med Univ，2025，47（24）：3150-3159.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202510054. DOI：

摘要

目的

基于全球疾病负担研究（Global Burden of Disease Study， GBD）2023数据，分析中国与全球良性前列腺增生（benign prostatic hyperplasia，BPH）疾病负担的差异，并预测中国未来发病率趋势，为制定防控策略提供依据。

方法

提取GBD 2023中1990—2023年中国及全球204个地区的BPH发病、患病、伤残损失寿命年（years lived with disability， YLDs）数据，采用预计年度百分比变化（estimated annual percentage change， EAPC）评估疾病负担趋势，通过年龄-时期-队列模型分解时空变异特征，并利用贝叶斯APC模型预测2024—2048年中国发病率。

结果

2023年发病人数、患病人数、YLDs值较1990年分别增加138.02%、155.87%、154.05%，但标化发病率、患病率、YLDs率呈下降趋势。中国BPH发病率在75~79岁达峰，患病率及YLDs率在70~95岁以上人群持续较高；与全球相比，中国标化率降幅高于高SDI地区，但低SDI地区病例发现较晚。年龄效应显示95岁以上人群发病率风险最高，时期效应自2001年后发病风险下降，队列效应显示出生年份越晚风险越低。2024—2048年中国BPH标化发病率呈持续下降趋势，2048年全人群标化发病率预计降至649.75/10万，75~79岁仍为高负担年龄组。

结论

中国BPH疾病负担呈绝对数增长、标化率下降的双重特征，防控措施初见成效，但老年人群仍是重点干预对象。未来发病率虽在提示医疗干预和预防措施的积极干预下，呈持续下降趋势，仍需加强预防教育、早期筛查，防治危险因素，共同管理慢性病以应对BPH未来带来的挑战。对策建议重点加强老年人群早期筛查与共病管理，优化基层尤其是农村医疗资源配置，面向中青年开展危险因素防控与健康教育，并构建基于预测的中长期防控体系，推动实现良性前列腺增生“主动预防、精准干预”的防治模式。

Abstract

Objective

To analyze the differences in the disease burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) between China and the global population based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2023

predict future incidence trends in China

and provide a basis for formulating prevention and control strategies.

Methods

Data on BPH incidence

prevalence

and years lived with disability (YLDs) from 1990 to 2023 in China and 204 global regions were extracted from GBD 2023. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to evaluate the trends of disease burden. Spatiotemporal variation characteristics were decomposed using an age-period-cohort model

and a Bayesian APC model was employed to predict BPH incidence in China from 2024 to 2048.

Results

In 2023

the number of incident cases

prevalent cases

and YLDs were increased by 138.02%

155.87%

and 154.05%

respectively

when compared with the values in 1990. However

the age-standardized incidence rate

prevalence rate

and YLDs rate showed decreasing trends. In China

BPH incidence reached a peak in the aged 75~79 group

while the prevalence and YLDs remained quite high in the 70~95

age group. Compared with the global average

the decline in age-standardized rates in China was greater than that in high socio-demographic index (SDI) regions

but the case

s in low SDI regions were detected later. The age effect indicated the highest incidence risk in the population aged ≥95 years; the period effect showed a decrease in incidence risk after 2001; The cohort effect revealed that the later the birth year

the lower the risk. From 2024 to 2048

the age-standardized incidence rate of BPH in China will continue to decline

with the projected age-standardized incidence rate in the total population reaching 649.75 per 100 000 by 2048

and the aged 75~79 group remaining the high-burden age group.

Conclusion

The disease burden of BPH in China exhibits dual characteristics: an increase in absolute numbers and a decrease in age-standardized rates. Prevention and control measures have shown initial effectiveness

but the elderly population remains a key target for intervention. Although the incidence will continue to decline in the future

efforts to strengthen health education and resource allocation are needed to address the challenges posed by population aging.

Countermeasure:

It is advised to strengthen early screening and comorbidity management in the elderly population

optimize medical resource allocation especially in rural primary care settings

implement risk factor prevention and health education for young and middle-aged groups

and establish a long-term prevention and control framework based on predictive data

so as to promote a shift toward “active prevention and precise intervention” in the management of benign prostatic hyperplasia.

关键词

Keywords

references

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