Challenges in the post-high vaccination coverage era: prevalence characteristics, future projections, and comprehensive management strategies based on risk factor control for chronic hepatitis B in China

GUO Pengpeng; KOU Menglin; HUANG Jingyue; FANG Jingya; LI Mei; XUE Aiguo; LIANG Jingrong

doi:10.16016/j.2097-0927.202510012

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Challenges in the post-high vaccination coverage era: prevalence characteristics, future projections, and comprehensive management strategies based on risk factor control for chronic hepatitis B in China

Think Tank for Public Health | 更新时间：2026-02-04

- Challenges in the post-high vaccination coverage era: prevalence characteristics, future projections, and comprehensive management strategies based on risk factor control for chronic hepatitis B in China
- Journal of Army Medical University Vol. 48, Issue 2, Pages: 203-215(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.广州中医药大学东莞医院针灸科，广东东莞
  2.珠海市慢性病防治中心内科，广东珠海
- 作者简介：
  
  LIANG Jingrong，E-mail：jingrongliang0606@126.com
- 基金信息：
  
  the National Natural Science Foundation for Young Scholars of China(82305387);the Famous TCM Doctor XUE Aiguo Inheritance Studio of Guangdong Province(粤中医办函〔2023〕108号)
- DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202510012
  CLC： R-05;R195.4;R512.62
- Received：10 October 2025，
  
  Revised：2025-12-17，
  
  Accepted：18 December 2025，
  
  Published：30 January 2026
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
郭芃芃，寇梦琳，黄静月，等.后高接种率时代的挑战：中国慢性乙型肝炎疾病负担的存量特征、未来预测及基于危险因素控制的综合治理策略［J］.陆军军医大学学报，2026，48（02）：203-215.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202510012.

GUO P P，KOU M L，HUANG J Y，et al.Challenges in the post-high vaccination coverage era： prevalence characteristics， future projections， and comprehensive management strategies based on risk factor control for chronic hepatitis B in China［J］.J Army Med Univ，2026，48（02）：203-215.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202510012.
郭芃芃，寇梦琳，黄静月，等.后高接种率时代的挑战：中国慢性乙型肝炎疾病负担的存量特征、未来预测及基于危险因素控制的综合治理策略［J］.陆军军医大学学报，2026，48（02）：203-215.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202510012. DOI：

GUO P P，KOU M L，HUANG J Y，et al.Challenges in the post-high vaccination coverage era： prevalence characteristics， future projections， and comprehensive management strategies based on risk factor control for chronic hepatitis B in China［J］.J Army Med Univ，2026，48（02）：203-215.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202510012. DOI：

摘要

目的

基于全球疾病负担研究数据库（global burden of disease database，GBD）2021数据，描述1990—2021年全球及中国慢性乙型肝炎（含肝硬化）的流行趋势与疾病负担，评估社会发展不平等格局及人口学驱动因素，并预测中国未来疾病负担及危险因素贡献。

方法

开展基于GBD 2021的二次分析，提取1990—2021年全球（204个国家/地区）及中国年龄标准化发病率（age-standardized incidence rate，ASIR）、年龄标准化患病率（age-standardized prevalence rate，ASPR）和年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率（age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate，ASDR）及95%不确定区间（uncertainty interval，UI）。采用Joinpoint分段回归估计年均变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）及95%置信区间（confidence interval，

）。结合社会人口学指数（sociodemographic index，SDI）相关不平等指标、前沿分析与Das Gupta对称加法分解，量化负担差异及人口增长、人口老龄化和流行病学变化对总量变动的相对贡献。基于中国1990—2021年年度序列构建的自回归积分滑动平均模型（autoregressive integrated moving average，ARIMA）预测2022—2035年趋势，并在GBD比较风险评估框架下量化酒精使用与药物使用的归因负担。

结果

1990—2021年全球ASIR、ASPR和ASDR总体下降AAPC值均具有统计学意义（

0.05），但在人口增长与老龄化叠加影响下，绝对病例数与伤残调整生命年（disability-adjusted life years，DALYs）未随标化率同步下降，负担主要集中于亚洲与撒哈拉以南非洲低-中SDI国家/地区。同期中国三项年龄标准化指标较1990年均下降

50%，儿童相关负担显著降低，但中老年男性仍为主要负担人群，总病例数与DALYs维持较高水平。分解分析显示，中国总量下降主要由流行病学变化降低驱动，而全球DALYs总量的变化更易受到人口增长与老龄化抵消/推动。ARIMA预测提示，在既往防控强度延续情景下，2035年前中国ASIR与ASDR将缓慢下降，而ASPR仍处相对高位。比较风险评估结果显示，酒精使用与药物使用为全球及中国慢性乙型肝炎（含肝硬化）相关DALYs的重要危险因素，其中中国酒精使用归因ASDR高于全球平均水平。

结论

1990—2021年全球与中国慢性乙型肝炎（含肝硬化）年龄标准化负担总体下降，但全球仍存在由人口增长与老龄化驱动的总量压力且分布不均；中国虽在疫苗接种、预防母婴传播与抗病毒治疗方面取得显著进展，但存量管理与并发症预防仍是进一步减负的关键环节。对策　为实现世界卫生组织提出的“2030年消除病毒性肝炎公共卫生危害”目标，建议巩固新生儿乙肝疫苗及时首针与全程接种并强化预防母婴传播（prevention of mother-to-child transmission，PMTCT）；聚焦中老年男性和高危地区，提升筛查-随访-治疗覆盖；将戒酒与物质使用障碍干预纳入乙肝管理；并向低-中SDI国家/地区及资源薄弱地区倾斜检测与治疗资源，缩小负担差距。

Abstract

Objective

To analyze the epidemiological trends and disease burden in chronic hepatitis B (including cirrhosis) from 1990 to 2021 globally and in China based on Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) 2021 study

assess development-related inequality patterns and demographic drivers

and project China’s future burden and risk-factor contributions.

Methods

A secondary analysis was conducted on GBD 2021 data for 1990—2021 to extract t

he age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR)

age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR)

and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate (ASDR) globally (204 countries/territories) and in China

each with 95% uncertainty interval (

). Joinpoint regression was used to estimate the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence interval (

). Combining sociodemographic index (SDI)-related inequality metrics

frontier analysis

and Das Gupta symmetric decomposition

differences in disease burden were quantified

and the relative contributions of population growth

population aging

and changes in age-specific rates to changes in absolute burden were also analyzed. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were fitted to China’s annual series for 1990—2021 to forecast trends for 2022—2035. Within the GBD comparative risk assessment framework

the attributable burden from alcohol consumption and drug use were quantified.

Results

Global ASIR

ASPR and ASDR in chronic hepatitis B were declined overall from 1990 to 2021 (all AAPCs

0.05). However

under the combined effects of population growth and aging

absolute numbers of cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) did not decrease in parallel with age-standardized rates. The burden was concentrated primarily in low-middle SDI countries/territories in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. In China

all 3 age-standardized indicators were decreased by more than 50% when compared with the values in 1990

and the burden was declined markedly in children; Nonetheless

middle-aged and old men remained the main high-burden group

with total cases and DALYs staying at relatively high levels. Decomposition analyses indicated that declines in age-specific rates (epidemiologic change) were the primary driver of reductions in China’s absolute burden

whereas changes in global DALYs were more readily offset or driven by population growth and aging. ARIMA projections sugge

sted that

under continuation of historical control intensity

China’s ASIR and ASDR will decline slowly through 2035

while ASPR will remain comparatively high. Comparative risk assessment showed that alcohol consumption and drug use were important modifiable contributors to DALYs related to chronic hepatitis B (including cirrhosis) globally and in China; alcohol-attributable ASDR in China was higher than the global average.

Conclusion

From 1990 to 2021

the age-standardized burden of chronic hepatitis B (including cirrhosis) declined globally and in China

yet substantial absolute-burden pressure persists worldwide due to population growth and aging and is unevenly distributed. Despite major progress in China in vaccination

prevention of mother-to-child transmission

and antiviral therapy

strengthened management of prevalent infections and prevention of complications remain critical to further reduce residual burden.

Countermeasures

　In line with the 2030 goal of eliminating viral hepatitis as a public health threat of World Health Organization

we recommend sustaining high coverage of timely birth-dose and full-course hepatitis B vaccination and strengthening prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT); prioritizing middle-aged and old men and high-risk areas to improve coverage of screening

follow-up

and treatment; integrating alcohol reduction and services for substance use disorders into hepatitis B care; and directing testing and treatment resources toward low-middle SDI settings and other resource-limited areas to narrow burden disparities.

关键词

Keywords

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