Trajectory of changes in body roundness index of elderly people in China and its influencing factors: an attribution analysis based on CLHLS cohort

MA Pengzhen; PANG Huaxin; SHEN Yikang; HU Xiaonan; LIU Mingrui; ZHAO Yufeng

doi:10.16016/j.2097-0927.202508006

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Trajectory of changes in body roundness index of elderly people in China and its influencing factors: an attribution analysis based on CLHLS cohort

Think Tank for Public Health | 更新时间：2025-11-28

- Trajectory of changes in body roundness index of elderly people in China and its influencing factors: an attribution analysis based on CLHLS cohort
- Journal of Army Medical University Vol. 47, Issue 22, Pages: 2858-2867(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  Data Center of Traditional Chinese Medicine， China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences， Beijing， China
- 作者简介：
  
  ZHAO Yufeng， E-mail： snowmanzhao@163.com
- 基金信息：
  
  the Special Fund for Basic Scientific Research of Central Public Welfare Research Institutes(ZZ1718-XRZ-105-SJ);the Science and Technology Innovation Project of China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences(CI2021A05042)
- DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202508006
  CLC： R181.37;R339.34;R589.2
- Received：03 August 2025，
  
  Revised：2025-11-13，
  
  Accepted：14 November 2025，
  
  Published：30 November 2025
- 稿件说明：
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马鹏珍，庞华鑫，沈翊康，等.中国老年人体圆指数变迁轨迹及其影响因素：一项基于CLHLS队列的归因分析［J］.陆军军医大学学报，2025，47（22）：2858-2867.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202508006.

MA P Z，PANG H X，SHEN Y K，et al.Trajectory of changes in body roundness index of elderly people in China and its influencing factors： an attribution analysis based on CLHLS cohort［J］.J Army Med Univ，2025，47（22）：2858-2867.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202508006.
马鹏珍，庞华鑫，沈翊康，等.中国老年人体圆指数变迁轨迹及其影响因素：一项基于CLHLS队列的归因分析［J］.陆军军医大学学报，2025，47（22）：2858-2867.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202508006. DOI：

MA P Z，PANG H X，SHEN Y K，et al.Trajectory of changes in body roundness index of elderly people in China and its influencing factors： an attribution analysis based on CLHLS cohort［J］.J Army Med Univ，2025，47（22）：2858-2867.DOI：10.16016/j.2097-0927.202508006. DOI：

摘要

目的

基于中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查（Chinese longitudinal healthy longevity survey，CLHLS）平台数据构建2011—2018年中国老年人体圆指数（body roundness index，BRI）变化的轨迹模型，并分析不同BRI轨迹的影响因素。

方法

本研究基于CLHLS平台中的纵向队列数据，运用组别轨迹模型分析（Group-based Trajectory Model，GBTM）构建2011、2014、2018年三波符合研究标准的调查对象BRI的纵向变化轨迹；并运用无序多分类logistic回归分析不同BRI轨迹的影响因素。

结果

共有2 512个有效样本被纳入分析，GBTM拟合的中国老年人BRI轨迹最优分组为3组，分别为低水平增长轨迹模型、中等水平增长轨迹模型、高水平增长轨迹模型。性别、受教育年限、居住地、是否与配偶同住、有无退休金、睡眠质量、是否存在吸烟史、是否存在饮酒史、是否一直锻炼、进食水果频率、进食盐腌蔬菜频率、“水果+蛋白质”饮食模式在不同BRI轨迹组中分布差异有统计学意义（

0.05）；无序多分类Logistic回归分析发现，以低水平增长轨迹模型为参照：男性、有吸烟史的人群更不易表现为中、高增长水平的BRI轨迹；有退休金的老年人更易表现为中、高增长水平的BRI轨迹；有饮酒史的人更容易表现为中等平稳增长水平的BRI轨迹；受教育年限

10的人更不容易表现为高水平增长的BRI轨迹，城市居民、经常进食水果以及盐腌蔬菜的人更容易表现为高水平增长的BRI轨迹。

结论

2011—2018年中国老年人BRI变化轨迹可分为3组，性别、居住地、受教育年限等多个因素或影响其轨迹走向，需提前关注并采取措施提升老年生活质量。对策建议有关部门将BRI纳入老年健康监测核心指标，建立高危人群动态管理机制，实施精准化生活方式干预与健康指导。

Abstract

Objective

To construct a trajectory model for the changes in body roundness index (BRI) of elderly people in China from 2011 to 2018 based on the data derived from Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS)

and analyze the influencing factors of different BRI trajectories.

Methods

Based on the longitudinal cohort data from the CLHLS platform

group-based trajectory model (GBTM) analysis was used to construct longitudinal change trajectories of 3 waves of BRI (2011

2014

and 2018) that meet our research criteria. Unordered multinomial logistic regression analysis was employed to identify the influencing factors of different BRI trajectories.

Results

A total of 2 512 valid samples were included in the analysis. The BRI trajectory of Chinese elderly people fitted by GBTM was optimally grouped into low-

medium-

and high-level growth trajectory models. There were statistically significant differences among different BRI trajectory groups in gender

length of education

resident place

living with spouse

retirement pension

sleep quality

smoking history

drinking history

continuous exercise

frequency of fruit consumption

frequency of salt-preserved vegetables consumption

and “fruit+protein” dietary patterns (

0.05). Disordered multiclass logistic regression analysis found that

using the low-level growth trajectory model as a reference

males and those with a history of smoking were less likely to exhibit moderate to high growth levels of BRI trajectories; Elderly people with retirement pensions were more likely to exhibit a moderate to high growth level of BRI trajectory; People with a history of alcohol consumption were more likely to exhibit a moderate steady growth level of BRI trajectory; People with longer than 10 years of education were less likely to exhibit a high level of growth in the BRI trajectory

while urban residents and those who frequently consumed fruits and salted vegetables were more likely to exhibit a

high level of growth in the BRI trajectory.

Conclusion

The trajectory of BRI changes among elderly people in China from 2011 to 2018 can be divided into 3 groups

which are influenced by multiple factors such as gender

resident place

and length of education. It is necessary to pay attention to and make measures in advance to improve the quality of life in the elderly.

Countermeasures

It is advisable to incorporate BRI as a core indicator in elderly health monitoring systems

establish a dynamic management mechanism for high-risk populations

and implement precision-targeted lifestyle interventions and health guidance.

关键词

Keywords

references

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