Prediction of new cases of HIV infection and AIDS in Chongqing: data fitting and comparative analysis of 3 prediction models

Ying XIANG; Hongyue YU; Wei ZHANG; Rongrong LU; Guohui WU; Kun SU; Shu YANG; Yao ZHANG; Yafei LI

doi:10.16016/j.1000-5404.201810141

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Prediction of new cases of HIV infection and AIDS in Chongqing: data fitting and comparative analysis of 3 prediction models

Public Health and Preventive Medicine | 更新时间：2026-01-09

- Prediction of new cases of HIV infection and AIDS in Chongqing: data fitting and comparative analysis of 3 prediction models
- Journal of Third Military Medical University Vol. 41, Issue 4, Pages: 376-383(2019)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.400038 重庆，陆军军医大学(第三军医大学)军事预防医学系军队流行病学教研室
  2.400042 重庆，重庆市疾病预防控制中心
  3.610500 成都，成都医学院卫生统计学教研室
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  the Key Project of Medical Research of Chongqing Health and Family Planning Commission(20141026)
- DOI：10.16016/j.1000-5404.201810141
  CLC： R181.23;R181.81;R512.91
- Received：23 October 2018，
  
  Revised：2018-12-11，
  
  Published：28 February 2019
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Ying XIANG, Hongyue YU, Wei ZHANG, et al. Prediction of new cases of HIV infection and AIDS in Chongqing: data fitting and comparative analysis of 3 prediction models[J]. Journal of Third Military Medical University, 2019, 41(4): 376-383.
DOI：

Ying XIANG, Hongyue YU, Wei ZHANG, et al. Prediction of new cases of HIV infection and AIDS in Chongqing: data fitting and comparative analysis of 3 prediction models[J]. Journal of Third Military Medical University, 2019, 41(4): 376-383. DOI： 10.16016/j.1000-5404.201810141.

摘要

目的

探讨适合于重庆市人类免疫缺陷病毒(human immunodeficiency virus

HIV)感染和艾滋病疫情特点的预测方法，并对近2年的发展变化进行短期预测并验证其结果。

方法

采用ARIMA模型、指数平滑法和趋势外推法3种常见的时间序列模型对2006-2015年重庆市新报告的HIV/AIDS病例总数进行拟合，对2016和2017年的新报告HIV/AIDS病例数进行预测并验证，构建并比较适合于重庆市艾滋病疫情的模型和预测方法。

结果

根据模型识别和诊断结果，分别构建了3种时间序列模型用于拟合和预测重庆市HIV/AIDS新发报告总数，分别是ARIMA(0

1)(0

1)模型、简单季节性指数平滑模型和二次曲线模型。3种模型对流行趋势拟合的标准误差为62.34、45.51和227.29，对近2年新发总数预测的平均相对误差分别为4.51%、2.14%和12.74%。

结论

3种预测模型对重庆市HIV/AIDS流行趋势的拟合效果和预测结果不同，简单季节性指数平滑法能更准确地拟合和预测重庆市HIV/AIDS新发总人数。

Abstract

Objective

To establish prediction models for the total number of newly reported cases of HIV infection and AIDS in Chongqing and assess the performance of these models using the data in the recent 2 years.

Methods

The ARIMA model

exponential smoothing method and trend extrapolation method were used to fit the data of the total number of newly reported cases of HIV infection and AIDS in Chongqing collected from 2006 to 2015. The number of newly reported cases in 2016 and 2017 were used to verify the performance of the 3 prediction models to establish the optimal model for epidemic prediction of AIDS in Chongqing.

Results

Based on the results of model identification and diagnosis

3 time series models

namely ARIMA (0

1) (0

1) model

simple seasonal exponential smoothing model and quadratic curve model

were constructed to fit and predict the total number of new HIV/AIDS cases in Chongqing. The standard errors of the 3 models for fitting the epidemic trends were 62.30

45.51 and 227.29

respectively

and their average relative errors for predicting the total number of new cases in the next two years were 4.51%

2.14% and 12.74%

respectively.

Conclusion

The 3 prediction models have different fitting effects and performance in predicting HIV/AIDS epidemic in Chongqing. Among them

the simple seasonal exponential smoothing method can more accurately fit and predict the total number of new HIV/AIDS cases in Chongqing.

关键词

Keywords

references

王超, 贾忠伟, 郭秀花, 等. HIV/AIDS疫情发生与进展的预测方法[J].北京医学, 2010, 32(12): 993-996. DOI: 10.15932/j.0253-9713.2010.12.014.

WANG C, JIA Z W, GUO X H, et al . Prediction methods of HIV/AIDS epidemic occurrence and progress[J ] . Beijing Med J, 2010, 32(12): 993-996. DOI: 10.15932/j.0253-9713.2010.12.014.

博克斯, 詹金斯, 莱因泽尔.时间序列分析: 预测与控制[M].王成璋, 尤梅芳, 郝杨, 译.北京: 机械工业出版社, 2011: 51.

BOX G E P, JENKINS G M, REINSEL G C. Time series analysis: forecasting and control[M]. WANG C Z, YOU M F, HAO Y, Translated.Beijing: China Machine Press, 2011: 51.

范引光, 吕金伟, 戴色莺, 等. ARIMA模型与灰色预测模型GM(1, 1)在HIV感染人数预测中的应用[J].中华疾病控制杂志, 2012, 16(12): 1100-1103.

FAN Y G, LYU J W, DAI S Y, et al . Prediction on the number of HIV with models of ARIMA and GM (1, 1)[J ] . Chin J Dis Control Prev, 2012, 16(12): 1100-1103.

杨永利, 毛赛彩, 薛源, 等. GM(1, 1)和趋势外推模型在我国艾滋病发病率预测中的应用[J].中国卫生统计, 2014, 31(6): 952-954.

YANG Y L, MAO S C, XUE Y, et al . Prediction on the incidence rate of AIDS in China with gray model(1, 1) and trend extrap olation model[J ] . Chin J Health Stat, 2014, 31(6): 952-954.

薛薇. SPSS统计分析方法及应用[M]. 3版.北京:电子工业出版社, 2013.

XUE W.SPSS statistical analysis method and application[M]. 3 Ed. Beijing: Electronic Industry Press, 2013.

吴家兵, 叶临湘, 尤尔科.时间序列模型在传染病发病率预测中的应用[J].中国卫生统计, 2006, 23(3): 276.

WU J B, YE L X, YOU E K. Application of time series model in prediction of incidence rate of infectious diseases[J]. Chin J Health Stat, 2006, 23(3): 276.

丁亚兴, 张之伦, 朱向军.自回归综合移动平均模型对天津市甲型肝炎发病预测[J].疾病监测, 2008, 23(5): 326-328. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2008.05.024.

DING Y X, ZHANG Z L, ZHU X J. Prediction of the incidence of hepatitis A in Tianjin using the autoregressive integrated moving average model[J]. Dis Surveillance, 2008, 23(5): 326-328. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2008.05.024.

王昕, 程小雯, 房师松, 等.指数平滑模型在流感样病例预测中的应用[J].中国热带医学, 2011, 11(8): 938-939. DOI: 10.13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r.2011.08.023.

WANG X, CHENG X W, FANG S S, et al . Application of exponential smoothing model in forecasting influenza incidence[J ] . China Tropical Med, 2011, 11(8): 938-939. DOI: 10.13604/j.cnki.46-10 64/r.2011.08.023.

谢妮.深圳市HIV/AIDS疫情分布特征与预测模型比较[D].长沙: 中南大学, 2011.

XIE N. The epidemic character of HIV/AIDS and comparison of different prediction models in Shenzhen[D]. Changsha: Central South University, 2011.

YU Z C, ZHANG W X, CHEN H, et al . Limited sampling strategy for the estimation of mycophenolic acid area under the plasma concentration-timecurve in adult patients undergoing liver transplant[J ] . Ther Drug Monit, 2007, 29(2): 207-214.DOI: 10.1097/FTD.0b013e318040ce0b.

EARNEST A, CHEN M I, NG D, et al . Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict and monitor the number of beds occupied during a SARS outbreak in a tertiary hospital in Singapore[J ] . BMC Health Serv Res, 2005, 5: 36. DOI: 10.1186/1472-6963-5-36.

马玉秀. 2006-2015年济南市槐荫区法定传染病流行趋势及预测分析[D].济南: 山东大学, 2016. [http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10422-1017005662.htm .

MA Y X. The analysis and predicting of trend of notifiable infectious diseases in Huaiyin from 2006-2015[D]. Jinan: Shangdong University, 2016.

龚磊, 吴家兵, 侯赛, 等.曲线估计在流行性感冒发病预测中的应用[J].华南预防医学, 2017, 43(1): 30-33. DOI: 10.13217/j.scjpm.2017.0030.

GONG L, WU J B, HOU S, et al . Application of curvilinear estimation in predicting incidence of influenza[J ] . South China J Prev Med, 2017, 43(1): 30-33. DOI: 10.13217/j.scjpm.2017.0030.

朱宗元, 于青. ARIMA模型在我国病毒性肝炎发病率预测中的应用[J].中国卫生统计, 2011, 28(1): 65-67. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-3674.2011.01.022.

ZHU Z Y, YU Q. Application of ARIMA model in predicting the incidence of viral hepatitis in China[J]. Chin J Health Stat, 2011, 28(1): 65-67. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-3674.2011.01.022.

赛晓勇, 张治英, 徐德忠, 等.不同时间序列分析法在洞庭湖区血吸虫病发病预测中的比较[J].中华流行病学杂志, 2004, 25(10): 863-866. DOI: 10.3760/j.issn: 0254-6450.2004.10.010.

SAI X Y, ZHANG Z Y, XU D Z, et al . Application of "time series analysis" in the prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in areas of "breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore" in Dongting Lake areas, China[J ] .Chin J Epidemiol, 2004, 25(10): 863-866. DOI: 10.3760/j.issn: 0254-6450.2004.10.010.

董蒴, 廖小勇, 任全玉.艾滋病预测模型及其应用研究-基于灰色系统理论[J].现代商贸工业, 2011(8): 25-26. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-3198.2011.08.015.

DONG S, LIAO X Y, REN Q Y. Research on AIDS prediction model and its prediction based on grey systemtheory[J]. Mod Bus Trade Ind, 2011(8): 25-26. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-3198.2011.08.015.

Views

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Establishment of a risk prediction for tuberculosis infection model in HIV-infected/AIDS patients

Achievements and challenges: Key priorities for prevention and control in the elderly amid the declining disease burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia in China

Analysis of disease burden of atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter globally and in China and Japan from 1990 to 2021 and future trend prediction

Trend of thyroid cancer incidence in China, 1992-2021: a Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis

Efficacy of standardized Internet+ standardized intervention modes against AIDS high-risk behaviors among MSM in Chongqing

Related Author

蒋红

蒋秋

陈瑞华

郑小燕

陈倩立

WANG Xuguang

FAN Shanshan

HUANG Yuhong

Related Institution

Center for Clinical Pharmacology

Department of Urology， the Second Affiliated Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine

Department of Urology， Xiyuan Hospital， China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences

Department of Andrology， the First Affiliated Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine， National Clinical Research Center for Chinese Medicine Acupuncture and Moxibustion

School of Public Health， Kunming Medical University， Kunming， Yunnan

⁰