Risk of stroke incidence in Chinese hypertensive patients based on Rothman-Keller model

Yanhong HUANG; Liang ZHOU; Hongru CHEN; Dali YI; Yanqi ZHANG; Yazhou WU; Ling LIU; Dong YI

doi:10.16016/j.1000-5404.201703161

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Risk of stroke incidence in Chinese hypertensive patients based on Rothman-Keller model

Public Health and Preventive Medicine | 更新时间：2026-01-09

- Risk of stroke incidence in Chinese hypertensive patients based on Rothman-Keller model
- Journal of Third Military Medical University Vol. 39, Issue 20, Pages: 2042-2050(2017)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.400038 重庆, 第三军医大学军事预防医学院卫生统计学教研室
  2.400042 重庆, 第三军医大学大坪医院野战外科研究所第九研究室
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  the General Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(81473068);the General Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(81202286)
- DOI：10.16016/j.1000-5404.201703161
  CLC： R195.1;R544.1;R743.3
- Received：26 March 2017，
  
  Revised：2017-06-16，
  
  Published：30 October 2017
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Yanhong HUANG, Liang ZHOU, Hongru CHEN, et al. Risk of stroke incidence in Chinese hypertensive patients based on Rothman-Keller model[J]. Journal of Third Military Medical University, 2017, 39(20): 2042-2050.
DOI：

Yanhong HUANG, Liang ZHOU, Hongru CHEN, et al. Risk of stroke incidence in Chinese hypertensive patients based on Rothman-Keller model[J]. Journal of Third Military Medical University, 2017, 39(20): 2042-2050. DOI： 10.16016/j.1000-5404.201703161.

摘要

目的

建立高血压患者并发脑卒中的风险评估模型。

方法

通过Meta分析的方法获得高血压患者并发脑卒中的危险因素及相应的合并风险值，构建Rothman-Keller模型的危险评分表，再通过二项分布函数方法生成一组随机数据集，确定风险评估等级划分界值，并采用实际数据验证。

结果

共纳入31篇文献，进入Rothman-Keller模型的因素包括收缩压、舒张压、高密度脂蛋白胆固醇、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇、同型半胱氨酸、高尿酸血症、空腹血糖受损/糖尿病、脑卒中家族史、颈动脉斑块、是否规律服药、体育锻炼、吸烟。实际人群发病情况与模型预测结果的ROC曲线下面积及95%

为0.784(0.718

0.849)，

0.001。

结论

本模型的预测效果较好，可以应用于高血压患者并发脑卒中的一级预防，有助于降低高血压患者并发脑卒中的风险。

Abstract

Objective

To build a risk assessment model of stroke in hypertensive patients.

Methods

The risk factors and corresponding combined risk values of hypertension patients complicating with stroke were obtained through meta-analysis. The risk score table of Rothman-Keller model was constructed. Then

a group of random data sets was generated through binomial distribution function method

and the dividing value of risk assessment grading was determined. Real data of 208 hypertension patients were used for verification.

Results

Thirty-one studies were included in the meta-analysis. The factors recruited in the Rothman-Keller model included systolic blood pressure

diastolic blood pressure

high-density lipoprotein cholesterol

low-density lipoprotein cholesterol

homocysteine

hyperuricemia

impaired fasting glucose/diabetes

family history of stroke

carotid plaque

regular drug taking

physical exercise

and smoke. The area under the rece

iver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of actual data and the forecasted results of the model (95%

) was 0.784 and 0.718~0.849 (

0.001).

Conclusion

The forecasted effects of our model are good

which can be applied to the primary prevention of hypertension patients complicating with stroke. It is conducive to reducing the risks of complicated stroke of hypertension patients.

关键词

Keywords

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