Applications of ARIMA model on predictive incidence of influenza

QI Li; LI Ge; LI Qin

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Applications of ARIMA model on predictive incidence of influenza

更新时间：2025-01-15

- Applications of ARIMA model on predictive incidence of influenza
- Journal of Army Medical University Vol. 29, Issue 3, Pages: 267-269(2007)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 重庆医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室
  2. 重庆市疾病预防控制中心传染病防治所
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC： R181.2;R183.3;R511.7
- Published：2007，
  
  Published Online：15 February 2007，
- 稿件说明：
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QI LI, LI GE, LI QIN. Applications of ARIMA model on predictive incidence of influenza. [J]. Journal of army medical university, 2007, 29(3): 267-269.
DOI：

QI LI, LI GE, LI QIN. Applications of ARIMA model on predictive incidence of influenza. [J]. Journal of army medical university, 2007, 29(3): 267-269. DOI：

摘要

目的探讨ARIMA模型在流感预测方面的应用，建立流感发病预测模型，并证明模型的适用性。方法利用重庆市2002年1月-2006年6月流感发病数资料，通过SPSS拟合ARIMA模型，用Q统计量法对模型适应性进行检验。结果建立ARIMA（1，1，1）模型，模型Q统计量

(

)

>0.05，证实了该模型的适用性。结论 ARIMA模型可用于流感发病的动态分析和短期预测。

Abstract

Objective To explore the application of auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and establish a predictive model for influenza to forecast the dynamic trend in order to develop the prevention policy scientifically. Methods Samples which caught influenza from 2002 Jan to 2006 Jun in Chongqing city were subjected. SPSS was used to fit ARIMA model，and Q statistic was used to verify the applicability of the model. Results The model of ARIMA(1

1) was established. The statistic of Q was smaller than

(

)

verifying the applicability of this model. Conclusion The ARIMA model can be used to analyze the influenza incidence and make a short-term prediction.

关键词

ARIMA模型时间序列流行性感冒预测

Keywords

auto regressive integrated moving average modeltime seriesinfluenzaprediction

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