Establishment of nomogram model for predicting the risk of rebleeding after treatment of esophageal and gastric varices based on endoscopic ultrasonography and clinical data
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Establishment of nomogram model for predicting the risk of rebleeding after treatment of esophageal and gastric varices based on endoscopic ultrasonography and clinical data
Journal of Clinical Ultrasound in MedicineVol. 25, Issue 12, (2023)
作者机构:
1. 河北省承德市中心医院 消化内科
2. 承德市中心医院 甲乳直肠科
作者简介:
基金信息:
DOI:
CLC:
Published:2023,
Published Online:2 January 2024,
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Establishment of nomogram model for predicting the risk of rebleeding after treatment of esophageal and gastric varices based on endoscopic ultrasonography and clinical data. [J]. Journal of Clinical Ultrasound in Medicine 25(12).(2023)
DOI:
Establishment of nomogram model for predicting the risk of rebleeding after treatment of esophageal and gastric varices based on endoscopic ultrasonography and clinical data. [J]. Journal of Clinical Ultrasound in Medicine 25(12).(2023)DOI:
Establishment of nomogram model for predicting the risk of rebleeding after treatment of esophageal and gastric varices based on endoscopic ultrasonography and clinical data
Objective To explore the establishment of nomogram model for predicting the risk of rebleeding after treatment of esophagogastric varices (EGV) based on endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and clinical data.Method A retrospective analysis was performed on 186 patients with EGV admitted from January 2020 to December 2022
who were divided into bleeding group (102 cases) and non-bleeding group (84 cases) according to the bleeding status after treatment. EUS parameters and clinical data of patients in the two groups were collected. Univariate analysis and multivariate Logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of rebleeding after EGV treatment
and the risk prediction model was constructed. The predictive value of the model was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve).Result Multiple Logistic regression analysis showed that red sign
ascites
CTP score
para-EVC diameter and azygos vein diameter were independent risk factors for rebleeding after EGV treatment (P
<
0.05). The AUC of the risk prediction model constructed based on the above five indexes was 0.974
and the sensitivity and specificity were 93.1% and 98.8%
which were higher than each single index in the model
and the degree of fitting of the risk prediction model was good (Hosmer-Lemeshow x
2
=7.303
P=0.504).Conclusion Red sign
ascites
CTP score
para-EVC diameter and azygos vein diameter were independent predicters of rebleeding after EGV treatment. The risk prediction model built based on the above five indicators had high predictive value for rebleeding after EGV treatment
and could provide theoretical basis for the prevention and treatment of rebleeding after EGV treatment.
关键词
超声内镜临床数据食管胃底静脉曲张破裂出血风险预测列线图模型
Keywords
Endoscopic ultrasonographyClinical dataEsophageal and gastric varices rupture and hemorrhageRisk predictionNomogram model