Integrated assessment model of stroke risk by logistic regression： a study based on evidence-based data of Western population

周亮; 程迪祥; 刘岭; 张彦琦; 伍亚舟; 刘小钰; 易东

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Integrated assessment model of stroke risk by logistic regression： a study based on evidence-based data of Western population

更新时间：2026-01-09

- Integrated assessment model of stroke risk by logistic regression： a study based on evidence-based data of Western population
- Journal of Army Medical University Vol. 36, Issue 8, Pages: 825-829(2014)
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  CLC： R181.23;R195.4;R743.3
- Published：2014
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周亮,程迪祥,刘岭,张彦琦,伍亚舟,刘小钰,易东.基于西方人群循证数据的脑卒中发病风险的系统分析[J].陆军军医大学学报(原第三军医大学学报),2014,36(08):825-829.

　Zhou Liang,Cheng Dixiang,Liu Ling,Zhang Yanqi,Wu Yazhou,Liu Xiaoyu,Yi Dong.Integrated assessment model of stroke risk by logistic regression： a study based on evidence-based data of Western population[J].J Amry Med Univ (J Third Mil Med Univ),2014,36(08):825-829.
周亮,程迪祥,刘岭,张彦琦,伍亚舟,刘小钰,易东.基于西方人群循证数据的脑卒中发病风险的系统分析[J].陆军军医大学学报(原第三军医大学学报),2014,36(08):825-829. DOI：

　Zhou Liang,Cheng Dixiang,Liu Ling,Zhang Yanqi,Wu Yazhou,Liu Xiaoyu,Yi Dong.Integrated assessment model of stroke risk by logistic regression： a study based on evidence-based data of Western population[J].J Amry Med Univ (J Third Mil Med Univ),2014,36(08):825-829. DOI：

摘要

目的基于Meta分析结果，探讨疾病发病风险综合评价模型。方法根据人群脑卒中发病危险因素队列研究和病例对照研究资料，利用Meta分析方法对危险因素的危险度进行合并，得到合并比值比(OR)，从而建立Logistic风险评价回归模型。结果最终纳入10个队列研究和5个病例对照研究，14个危险因素。通过数据筛选，有8个危险因素进本次模型，包括：BMI≥25.0 kg/m

、SBP 120~140 mmHg、SBP≥140 mmHg、高血压病史、糖尿病病史、冠心病史、房颤和吸烟，其综合危险度为：1.19、1.15、1.55、2.20、1.99、1.40、1.51和2.05。结论本研究以系统评价为基础建立西方人群脑卒中风险评价模型，有效地避免了人群样本量偏少的因素，建立的模型具有循证医学证据。

Abstract

Objective Based on the result of meta-analysis

to explore the integrated assessment model of stroke risk. Methods Based on the data in the cohort studies and case-control studies of stroke

meta-analysis was used to combine risk degree of the factors

get the pooled odds ratio(OR)

and then build the risk integrated assessment model by logistic regression. Results A total of 10 cohort studies and 5 case-control studies were included in this study

and 14 risk factors were studied. After screening

8 factors were included in the model

including BMI ≥25.0 kg/m

SBP 120 to 140 mmHg

SBP ≥140 mmHg

hypertension

diabetes

CHD (

coronary heart disease)

AF (atrial fibrillation) and smoking (current)

with pooled OR of 1.19

1.15

1.55

2.20

1.99

1.40

1.51 and 2.05

respectively. Conclusion Through the systematic review

the study builds an integrated assessment model of stroke risk in the Western population based on evidence-based data

avoiding the bias of small sample. The model has the practical significance in prevention of stroke in the Western population.

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